How we manage Alberta’s finances during the next decade will likely determine the prosperity of our province for the next century.

It’s a bold claim to be sure, but let me explain.

Thanks to new oilsands technologies, Alberta now has, or likely soon will have, close to a trillion barrels of recoverable oil reserves. This represents literally hundreds of trillions in economic activity and wealth for the people of our province and nation. For as long as the price of oil remains above roughly $60-$80 dollars a barrel (depending on who you talk to), Alberta is set up to become the most important energy producing jurisdiction in the world – and possibly the only politically stable and environmentally responsible oil producing giant on earth.

Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? There are a couple of major caveats to consider though. Technology is a double-edged sword. The same ability of human beings to create the technologies necessary to unlocking such vast supplies of oilsands wealth, will no doubt one day develop technology making non-renewable carbon-based fuels either less important or entirely obsolete. As oil becomes less necessary to power cars, planes, trains, factories and everything else in this world, the price of oil will decrease as well – making oilsands development economically unviable.

This will take some time of course…it may take 15 years…it may take 50…but it will happen. In fact, it will almost certainly happen long before our trillion barrels of oil runs out. Think about coal for example. We have endless amounts of it; but are we exporting it all over the world? No, we’re not – because it isn’t worth enough. Although many in the world still use coal, it has been largely replaced by oil and gas. And one day this century, I suspect oil will suffer a similar fate.

What does this mean for Alberta? It’s quite simple. Either we take advantage of our unique circumstances for the next 30 years or so, or we enjoy 30 years of plenty and then turn into the economic equivalent of Montana or Michigan (except they have better weather). And when that wealth runs dry – so does the money to pay our teachers, staff our hospitals and maintain our roads and bridges. Empty and decaying infrastructure is not a legacy to be proud of.

Last week, the Wildrose Caucus released a proposed new fiscal plan for our province that will ensure Alberta stays economically prosperous long after oil and gas revenues run dry. The highlights are as follows:

A Spending Control Strategy that limits annual increases in government expenditures to the rate of inflation plus population growth, thereby bringing our budget back into balance and returning us to large annual surpluses.

A Heritage Fund Savings Strategy that will see us invest the majority of our growing surpluses (the result of controlled spending and high oil revenues) in the Alberta Heritage Fund, growing the Fund to at least $100 billion within the next 10-15 years.

A Market-Driven Diversification Strategy that will use the tens of billions in annual dividends from the growing Heritage Fund to lower personal income taxes as well as business taxes across all sectors and industries, thereby attracting the best minds, ideas, businesses and people in the world to move, invest and remain in our province permanently…and not just for while oil is worth north of $100 a barrel.

The PCs have burned through our savings, reduced the Heritage Fund to below what it was worth in 1976 when first created, are suggesting we raise taxes to pay for the highest spending in the nation, and are handing out billions in direct grants to corporations in the name of diversifying the economy (which has never worked).

Because of our vast oil riches, the next couple of decades will see Alberta become an economic power in this world…the question is will we choose to hoard it all for our generation – or will we set up our children and grandchildren to enjoy unprecedented prosperity for decades after oil has gone the way of coal?

This may be the most defining and important moment in our province’s history…which makes the upcoming provincial election all the more critical.