Don Braid - Calgary Herald
January 20th, 2012

CALGARY — Finance Minister Ron Liepert says goodies will be absent from the coming provincial budget. There are sure to be baddies, though, in the form of a another deficit this year and perhaps into the future.

The PCs still seem set on moderation, hoping to trim the deficit rather than slay it. But a mere lack of dramatic action could make this the most contentious Alberta budget since ex-premier Ralph Klein launched his deep cuts in 1994.

The reason is Wildrose, the party that’s always ready to pounce on evidence of fiscal irresponsibility. And Danielle Smith’s party got some potent early ammunition Thursday, in a new study from the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

It shows astonishing growth in Alberta’s public sector wages and salaries — 119 per cent in the past decade — almost double the growth rate in the rest of Canada.

According to the study, the increases were slathered lavishly across all public service sectors, from general government service to health, education and post-secondary.

The study says “95 per cent of the increase in provincial revenues over the past decade has gone directly into the pockets of public sector employees.”

“The total wage bill rose to nearly 45 per cent of total expenditure in 2010, from just over a quarter in 2000.”

This is explosive stuff, especially with the government in a crucial stage of negotiation with doctors, teachers, and 22,000 non-medical health workers.

Eager to avoid labour eruptions during the looming election campaign, the government is sounding conciliatory. But talk persists that the PCs will avoid deep spending cuts while still doing something to establish fiscal credibility.

That raises the thought of a general wage and salary freeze. Former premier Klein did that — in fact, he cut public pay — and won the next election handily.

The Redford government might just be tempted to try a freeze (although, it has to be said, there’s no hint of this yet from the PC rumour mill.)

Liberal Leader Raj Sherman said Thursday he supports the health workers; meaning, presumably, that he backs their wage expectations.

Brian Mason’s NDP never argue against more public sector pay.

Wildrose, though, doesn’t hesitate.

“We’d start with a freeze,” says Wildrose finance critic Rob Anderson. “There’s no way we can justify any increases to any public sector salaries until we have the budget balanced. Period. That’s it. We can’t sell out our kids for today’s votes.”

Anderson doesn’t think a freeze would destroy party support in the public sector.

“Most of the nurses, doctors and teachers out there, understand it. They get it,” he says. “The ones I talk to are willing to accept a freeze so we can balance the budget. These people care about their province, too.”

The U of C report scolds the government for the big salary increases, while saying nothing about the intense public demand for services that the government found irresistible in the mid-2000s.

The co-author, Ken Boessenkool, is also a highly political figure, a former Stephen Harper adviser who helped found the small-c Alberta Blue Committee.

Only days ago he agreed to become B.C. Premier Christy Clark’s chief of staff. Over there, it’s widely felt that his job is to yank Clark hard right, to head off a serious challenge from the resurgent B.C. Conservative party.

While telling us not to expect goodies, Liepert said the budget isn’t finished, yet. The remaining work is probably more political than fiscal.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald