September 15th
Rob Bell: Calgary Herald

Wednesday and questions abound about a poll on the Tory leadership race taken from a list of party members the party did not give the pollster.

Throughout the day we are led to believe the party will investigate the matter. They do not. They offer a late-night statement of hand wringing punctuated by the odd Tsk Tsk. Pathetic trumps incredible.

Here’s how it shakes out.

The only people voting in the race to replace Unsteady Eddie are those who put down five bucks for a Tory party card.

The leadership hopefuls flog the cards. Everyone who buys a card is on a membership list. All candidates have this list. It is not to be made public. The candidates have to sign a confidentiality agreement.

A poll comes out this week, a sample from a list of party members. It’s done by Environics for the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal and shows Gary Mar in first place with strong support across the province.

To some people’s surprise, Alison Redford is a solid second and showing first in Calgary. Doug Horner is third.

Not making the top-three cut is Ted Morton, who most crystal ball gazers have in the hunt. Then there’s Rick Orman, making noise about the party losing its principles and Doug Griffiths.

Questions are asked. If the list is confidential how does Environics get it?

Did the Tory party give them the list? The answer is no.

Somebody who had the list leaked the list.

In the whisperings of the power seekers of Toryland, very distant from the world of regular taxpayers who pay for the good government we usually don’t receive, there is much speculation.

It is bad the confidential list is out. It is worse when people start figuring the list the pollster uses for the number crunching could be a different list than the original party list.

After all, if someone from the camp of one of the candidates goes so far as to break a for-you-eyes-only agreement, what would stop them from fiddling with the names on the list before leaking the thing?

Orman, as he’s done throughout this mind-numbing campaign, speaks out.

He asks the party to get to the truth. He wants to see the Environics list and compare it to the party list all the candidates have. He says the poll results don’t bear out the number of party memberships his people have sold.

“Data might have been compromised or gerrymandered in a particular direction to enhance the future of one of the other candidates,” says Orman.

“No one knows how the list may have been altered.”

Orman says he’s talked to those backing other candidates and “fingers are pointing in one direction.”

He does not elaborate.

Tony Coulson of Environics says they were given the list of party members, told it was legit and proceeded from there.

“We took the list and properly conducted a random sample,” says Coulson, adding any questions about the list should be directed to the Calgary Herald since they commissioned the nosecount.

Lorne Motley, editor-in chief at the Calgary Herald, says the newspaper obtained the party membership list from a source who they aren’t going to identify “for journalistic reasons.”

The list was of 22,000 party members registered by early September and the paper took measures to verify the list.

“We’re comfortable with our poll,” says Motley.

Doing a sampling from the camps of the candidates, Stephen Carter of Redford’s team says of any leak: “Let’s be clear. We didn’t do it.”

Sam Armstrong is with Ted Morton and is nothing if not a realist.

“I don’t see where it can go,” he says, about questions being posed.

“There is no way to pursue it.”

The Tory party can’t force Environics to cough up the party list they used and the first ballot of the leadership vote is Saturday.

“I know what our numbers are and we’re not in fourth place,” insists Armstrong.

As day becomes night, the party coughs up a statement.

The Tory higher-ups are “very concerned.” They confirm the list didn’t come from the party. They are surprised Environics used it.

“The list is not at all an accurate reflection of the membership that will be participating in our leadership process.”

They will contact all the leadership campaigns regarding this issue. Bet they’re shivering already. Not.

Late Wednesday another poll surfaces, this one of Edmontonians and Calgarians, not Tory members.

When asked which of the six wannabe premiers would be the best, a winner emerges scoring a wide margin over all other choices.

None of the above.

This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it