What if the PC's hold their vote, pick the new leader, install the new premier, but the public doesn't care?

Maybe that's the future, despite the leadership hoopla that will escalate through the weekend.

Signs of PC weakness persist. For one thing, several candidates say party memberships are much harder to sell than they were in 2006, when Ed Stelmach won and more than 144,000 ballots were cast.

Preston Manning, who might well be the premier today if he'd run in 2006, says the PCs will face a serious threat if they don't reinvent themselves.

"The biggest challenge is how to reinvigorate a party that's been such a long time in office," he said in an interview.

"This involves being pretty frank about the need for change and renewal. I haven't seen much of that. Nobody is crusading on the fact that the party itself has to change and reinvent itself."

Preston recalls asking his dad, Ernest Manning, why he retired as Social Credit premier in 1968.

Ernest said: "I was tired of talking the people out of positions I talked them into 10 years before."

And that's the point, says Preston, because "after so many years, every law, every policy on the books is yours. You're asking people to believe you'll change what you yourself advocated and defended. It gets harder and harder to do."

Preston himself led the new federal Reform party against a Progressive Conservative Party that was growing self-satisfied and complacent.

In 1993, thanks largely to Reform, an all-powerful government party was reduced to two seats in Parliament.

Now Wildrose is determined to do the same job on the provincial PCs. All the fuss over the leadership might be masking the fact that they still have a chance.

On Wednesday, Global TV published a fascinating poll that said nearly six out of 10 Calgarians and Edmontonians respond "none of the above" when asked which PC candidate would make the best premier.

All this spells trouble for the PCs once the leadership is settled and they face the voters.

With such a long-serving party, Manning says, even a dynamic leader has trouble convincing party veterans that change is essential.

"The time to talk about that is when you're campaigning for the job. If you wait until after, people say, 'You didn't mention that.' "

And he doesn't hear any candidates urging deep, difficult changes to the way the party and government behave.

By the time his father retired, Preston says, it might have been impossible for anyone to revive Social Credit.

Ernest Manning's successor, Harry Strom, certainly couldn't. The PCs beat him three years later.

And now, 40 years on, those PCs have reached a similar crossroads of their own.

"What the province needs is much more vigorous leadership and direction," Preston Manning says. "If the people don't get it from the government party, they'll get it somewhere else.

"And our history shows that when Albertans decide it's time to change and clean house, no province does it faster."

DON BRAID'S COLUMN APPEARS REGULARLY IN THE HERALD. This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it